The short version is memory. Memory makers shifted production toward AI data centers, and the RAM and SSD chips that go into laptops became scarce. Gartner expected DRAM and SSD prices to rise 130% by the end of 2026 and pull PC prices up 17% with them, and IDC’s forecast lands on the same 17% rise in average PC prices. In October, IDC said prices will stay elevated.
+130%DRAM and SSD prices by the end of 2026, Gartner forecast
+17%average PC price in 2026, IDC
23%deepest computer discount of 2025, Adobe
The brands passed it on in public. Microsoft raised Surface prices on April 14, 2026, taking the 12-inch Surface Pro from $799 to $1,049. Apple followed on June 25 and blamed memory costs:
- MacBook Neo: $599 to $699
- MacBook Air with 512GB: $1,099 to $1,299
- 14-inch MacBook Pro with 1TB: $1,699 to $1,999
The budget end moved even more. Last Cyber Monday, Amazon sold an Acer Aspire Go 15 with 8GB of memory and 128GB of storage for $199.99. In October 2026 the same model costs close to double that there, and Acer’s CEO expects PC prices to rise another 5% to 20% before the year ends.
Tariffs aren’t the main driver this year. The US Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, and laptop prices kept rising anyway because memory costs took over.
Discounts themselves should look normal. Adobe tracked computer discounts peaking at 23% on Cyber Monday 2025 and forecasts the same 23% peak this year. Take a laptop that listed at $1,000 last year and sold for $770 on Cyber Monday. Raise the list 17% to $1,170, take the same 23% off and you pay about $900. The deal looks identical on the tag and costs $130 more than last year.
Black Friday 2025 vs 2026
Last year’s sale started from much lower prices. These are the clearest before-and-after cases:
- MacBook Air: the M4 model sold for $749 last Black Friday. The cheapest MacBook Air now lists at $1,299.
- Dell 14 Plus: $499.99 with 16GB of memory last Black Friday. Dell now lists 16GB models from $1,379.99.
- Alienware 16 Aurora: $799.99 last Black Friday. Dell now lists it from $1,599.99.
- Acer Aspire Go 15: $199.99 on Cyber Monday with 8GB and 128GB, and close to double that now.
So the same percentage off lands on a much higher starting price. That’s the math behind every target on this page.
What to Expect This Black Friday
No laptop maker has announced its 2026 Black Friday prices. Going by last year and the pressures above, this is how I read the odds:
- Likely: Black Friday week opening around November 20, with the deepest computer discounts on Cyber Monday, as in 2025.
- Likely: doorbusters built around 8GB and 256GB configurations, which look cheap and age the fastest.
- Likely: Apple sticking to gift cards on its own store while Amazon, Best Buy and Costco cut MacBook prices directly.
- Possible: another round of price increases before the sale. Jefferies analysts expect memory prices to rise another 40% to 50% in the third quarter of 2026 and 30% to 40% in the fourth.
- Unlikely: any laptop back at last year’s Black Friday price in the same configuration.
There are broadly three ways to handle a laptop purchase this year.
You can buy on Black Friday and trust the percentage. That works when you know the laptop’s real price history and fails when you don’t.
Or you can sit the year out and wait for prices to fall. IDC doesn’t expect the memory shortage to ease before the end of 2027, and Acer expects prices to peak around mid-2027, so waiting is a bet on a timeline nobody is promising.
The sensible middle is to choose the laptop now, set a target from its lowest recent price and buy the first time any retailer crosses it – on Black Friday, before it or after it. The targets below are built for exactly that.
One pressure is gone this year. Microsoft quietly extended Windows 10 security updates for home users to October 12, 2027, so an old Windows 10 laptop doesn’t force a purchase this November. Enrolling is free with Windows Backup, or costs 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points or $30.
A note on where the picks come from. A MacBook Pro with the M5 Pro chip is my main portable machine and a MacBook Air is the second one, so the Mac advice comes from daily use. The Windows and ChromeOS picks are researched: published specs, independent reviews from Notebookcheck, PCWorld and Tom’s Hardware, and the lowest prices each laptop has hit at major US retailers.
